Cary Rejects Park and Affordable Housing bonds, Economic Outlook from Ted Abernathy, Council-Staff Quarterly, and Veterans Luncheon

Town Manager One-On-One

Monday, I talked briefly with the town manager during our weekly one-on-one. Topics the upcoming Quarterly, the Waverly rezoning, the Adaptive Stormwater Group, and the Downtown Cary Park.

Election Results

The Cary bonds failed by a significant margin in Tuesday’s election. I have been interviewed by two media outlets, including WRAL. I have also been asked several questions by others about the bond. Here are some of the questions and my answers:

Will this change the timing or feasibility of the construction of the Sports & Rec facility? 

Yes. The bond is a funding question. The majority of citizens said they do not want to pay for this facility. Therefore, it will not move forward.

Does the $75 million go back to the county?

We haven’t received any money from them, but they agreed to pay $75 million for the sports complex. So that is not happening.

Did we really lose $30 million in economic development from the sports complex?

Those were the estimates given to me if the center were in operation today.

So can the sports complex come back at a later date?

In my opinion it is dead. Cary will not fund the sports complex at South Hills.


Will this prevent Cary from addressing the initiatives it wanted to accomplish with the parks bond — or will it just change the timing and scale of the plans going forward? 

Yes, this will stop all these projects from moving forward unless a future bond includes them. As of now there is no plan for a future bond. To be specific, we will not be moving forward with the Sports Complex including the senior and community center, Mills Park senior and community center, tennis expansion and pickleball courts, Walnut Creek greenway, Asian garden master plan, and the nature park master plan.

Now that the bonds have failed, when will there be another senior center or community center?

That is for future councils to decide. As of today, we have no plans to move forward. In addition, the process of planning, designing, and implementation is probably a four-year or more process. So we are not likely to see anything for many, many years.


Will Cary try to find funding for affordable housing in some other way? 

Funding for affordable housing has been and will be an annual budget question. The bond question would have allowed us to do more. The citizens did not want to pay for additional affordable housing beyond the annual budget considerations.

My election summary:

I recently heard a talk given by Colonel Bret Batdorff of Fort Liberty. He reminded the audience that the constitution starts with “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union…” and that democracy was messy for the founding fathers, and it is messy today. We are bound by the fact that we are US citizens and should always be striving to form that more perfect union.

Extrapolating a bit… Cary is an amazing place inhabited by amazing people. While we may not be perfect, may have bond failures, may disagree on tax rates, etc., working together we will strive to form a more perfect Cary.

Ted Abernathy’s Economic Outlook

Wednesday morning Ted Abernathy of Economic Leadership LLC made a presentation on the Economic Outlook. Here are some of the points made in that presentation:

  • “Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans.”
  • The US has the fastest post-pandemic recovery selected developing economies (Sweden, Canada, Italy, UK, France, Japan, and Germany) with the highest GDP and per capita income.
  • Third Quarter GDP grew by 2.8% on an annualized basis driven primarily by consumer spending.
  • In the last 5 years US GDP grew by 8.7% while NC grew by 6.6%.
  • Two thirds of the US economy is consumer consumption.
  • Since 2018 the average household spending increased 14.7%.
  • “ADP said employers added 233,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 159,000 in September. That is the strongest job creation reported in 15 months, and it occurred despite major hurricanes in the Southeast that analysts expected would drag down payroll numbers.”
  • The job opening rate continues to decrease since its peak in 2022 and is now 4.8%.
  • Most job openings are from small or very small establishments.
  • Since the start of covid the US has added 4.5% more jobs. NC has added 8.4%.
  • Only 11 counties out of 100 counties in NC have seen job growth in the last year. These are counties around Raleigh, Wilmington, and Morehead city.
  • More than 50 counties in NC are losing jobs.
  • The three biggest areas of non-farm job growth in NC are financial, construction, and professional/technical.
  • The three biggest areas of non-farm job growth in the US are construction, education/health, and professional/technical.
  • The biggest areas of non-farm growth since the beginning of the pandemic in the Raleigh metro area are construction, financial, education/health, and professional/technical which all outpaced state and national averages. The Raleigh metro area had the highest non-farm growth rate in the state.
  • NC saw a loss of 2.3% manufacturing jobs in the last four years.
  • Cary employment in the last ten years has gone from 79,888 to 100,232.
  • Cary has the lowest unemployment rate in the triangle.
  • Cary’s permit value continues to decline from its peak in 2016 of $409 million to $283 million.
  • Cary’s permit value us $270 million commercial and $183 million residential.
  • The US inflation rate is 2.2% excluding food and energy. It is 2.7% with those included.
  • A decrease in inflation in the last four years include 22.4% in fuel oil, 15.4% in motor fuel, 5.1% in used cars/trucks, and 1.3% in new vehicles.
  • An increase in inflation in the last four years includes 16.3% in motor vehicle insurance, 5.2% in homeowner equivalent, 4.8% rent in primary residence, and 3.9% in meat/fish/eggs.
  • Average hourly earnings have kept pace with inflation.
  • 28.6% of the nation’s top earners are from the top third. NC has 31.4%.
  • 51.4% of Americans think the stock market will rise this year.
  • Corporate profits continue to increase dramatically since the pandemic.
  • Top factors for companies in site selection: labor, infrastructure, read sites.
  • Top factors impacting industrial projects: electricity capacity, access to develop ready sites, and access to talent.
  • NC is ranked 12th in the business climate index.
  • NC is ranked 18th in the cost of doing business.
  • 1960 the US Fertility Rate was 3.7 children. In 2022 it was 1.66 children, NCs was 1.71.
  • NC has seen a 3.7% increase in population since 2020.
  • NC population growth from ages 25 to 64 (labor force ages) has been over 7%.
  • Wake County and surrounding counties are projected to grow labor force age over 10%.
  • The Raleigh-Cary area has seen population growth of over 20%, the highest in the state, in the last ten years while Goldsboro, Greenville, New Bern, and Rocky Mount have lost population.
  • More millennials are deciding not to have children.
  • The labor force participation rate from ages 24 to 54 is 83.5%, ages 16 to 24 is 55.5%, and ages 55 and over is 38.6%.
  • The NC labor force participation rate in 2023 was 60% to 61.7%.
  • Only 46% of Americans say they will work past 62.
  • In NC 20.6% of those over 65 are working.
  • 18.1% of US workforce are born in another country.
  • Top five states people are moving to NC from: FL, SC, NY, VA, and GA.
  • Top five states people are moving from NC to: SC, FL, VA, GA, and TX.
  • A huge spike in energy demand is expected in coming years.
  • Home prices in NC have increased 62% in the last four years, which is in the top five in US.
  • The average home value in NC was $329,454 while in Wake County it was over $400,000.
  • The percentage of new residential permits in Wake County for Cary in 2010 was 27% while in 2024 3.5%.
  • Cary residential properties sold continue to decline with 3533 sales in 2021 to 1915 in the latest report.
  • The average price of property in Cary was $312,772. Now it is $668,373.
  • North Carolina ranks 19th in IT and innovation.
  • Advanced industrial jobs have increased 16.1% in NC in the last five years compared to the national average of 11.9%.
  • The Raleigh Metro area saw a gain of 53,163 jobs in 2022.
  • Average homeowner insurance in NC was $1500 to $2500 a year.
  • North Carolina was in the middle third for overall safety.
  • North Carolina was ranked as one of the best health states.
  • North Carolina was in the top third for fiscal stability.
  • The Raleigh Metro area is expected to grow by more than 143,000 people by 2030.
  • The Raleigh-Cary area grew by 73,246 from 2020 to 2023, a 6.5% growth rate.
  • The Raleigh Metro area per capita income grew by over 26% from 2020 to 2023.

Quarterly Meeting

Thursday the council held its last quarterly meeting of the year. In the first part of the meeting staff wanted to hear the council’s reflection on the election including bonds, and races on the local, state, and federal level.

Here are some of my thoughts about the bond and moving forward which were also expressed by others:

  • We heard the citizens loud and clear. All projects on the bond are stopped.
  • That doesn’t mean we can’t still be “top of the arc” (best of the best). However, eventually we will need to invest in the future.
  • We are too far in front of the community with thoughts and vision. We will need to be more risk averse in the short term. That is, if we are only thinking for the short term we will not move forward. But if we are only thinking for the long term we are not listening enough to the citizens.

Here are some of the takeaways from the quarterly:

  • The Biennial Survey showed 84.6% would recommend Cary for relocation. It also showed 97.3% felt safe.
  • We provide high quality municipal services for the lowest possible cost. We can no longer provide the “highest”.
  • Cary is now in maintenance mode. We may need to delay stormwater sewer projects, charge for events, and postpone any new sidewalks.
  • Influx of subsidy era is over.
  • Cary is in solid financial standing with reserves and rating agencies.
  • Prioritization is essential in moving forward due to cost escalation.
  • Financial fluency, our own and our citizens’, is a primary focus.
  • Sales tax revenue has slowed to basically no change from the previous year.
  • Residential permits are trending downward and are close to their lowest point in decades.
  • The consumer price index has increased dramatically showing a significant inflationary impact on goods and services.
  • Actions taken to ensure financial health:
    • Issued debt for vehicle purchases
    • Transferred from capital funds to the general fund.
    • Delayed spending on non-critical initiatives
  • The upcoming budget will:
    • Focus investment to maintenance
    • Hold vacant positions
    • Cut travel and training
    • Eliminate consulting contracts
  • All departments reviewing their current year, FY 2025, operating budgets:
    • Evaluating non-personnel expenditures
    • Continue, Hold, Stop
    • The goal is to underspend to address projected inflation and personnel impacts
  • For Capital Projects construction cost inflation has outpaced our budgets. Costs continue to be at all time highs. All existing capital projects will be re-estimated by staff and are being reviewed in preparation for a council reprioritization exercise at the February annual meeting.
  • Prioritization isn’t a one-time event; it’s an on-going effort that provides transparency in where we’re spending our time and money
  • 2019 Bond projects will be put on hold and the stage they are in. These include:
    • Carpenter Fire Station Road Widening $4,000,000 Design
    • Louis Stephens Drive $3,200,000 Design
    • Veterans Freedom Park $2,000,000 Planning
    • Tryon Road Park $10,000,000 Planning
    • Walnut Creek Greenway $1,400,000 Planning
    • Dutchman’s Branch Greenway $1,500,000 Planning
    • Green Level Church Rd Widening $15,500,000 Research
    • NC55 Pedestrian Grade Separation $1,000,000 Planning
    • O’Kelly Chapel Road Widening $9,200,000 Research
    • Action Sports Park $2,000,000 Design
    • Total: $49,800,000
  • Capital Projects that will be considered for reprioritization or pausing:
    • Street Improvements FY25 $8,319,048 Powell
    • Optimist Farm Greenway $4,881,628 Grant, Rec in Lieu etc.
    • Lake Grove Dam Maintenance $4,000,000 Cash
    • Cary Tennis Park Improvements $3,000,000 Rec in Lieu
    • Western Cary Community Facility $2,550,000 Rec in Lieu
    • Parking Deck Technology $2,035,300 Cash
      • Vehicle License Fee, $10M
    • Highcroft Drive Extension $1,500,000 needed
    • South Hills Community Center $1,283,980 Rec in Lieu
    • Sidewalks FY25 $1,000,000 Vehicle License Fee
    • Downtown Ped Improvements $750,000 Vehicle License Fee
    • Mobility Study $500,000 Operating Budget
    • Cary Tennis Clubhouse Design $486,495 Cash
    • Total: $30,306,451
  • Planning for the FY 2026 Operating Budget
    • Full impacts of personnel costs will be budgeted
    • Will assume that our departments are 100% staffed all year
    • Continue to monitor inflationary impacts (up or down) and adjust requests accordingly during budget development
  • Planning for the FY 2026 Capital Budget
    • Resource Preservation
    • Maintenance focus
    • New project requests will be prioritized just like existing projects
    • Existing project costs will be reviewed in light of inflation and the bidding environment
    • Additional funds will be requested where needed

Veterans Luncheon

Friday I joined Mayor Pro-Tem Robinson, Council member Smith, and Council member Bansal in greeting veterans attending the Cary Veterans lunch at Prestonwood. We presented each of them with a pin as they entered. We were so blessed to have so many veterans, and their spouses attend our luncheon. And we are honored to have these heroes in our community. Thanks to all veterans for their service!

Mayor’s Mailbox

  • Dozens of incoherent complaints from someone who is struggling with drugs or mental illness. Some of the comments asked me to shoot people.
  • A request for help with the power company.
  • A request to find full-time work for a part-time Cary worker.
  • A request to “STOP SPENDING OUR MONEY!” in all caps.
  • Questions about getting a sidewalk to the Windemere subdivision.
  • A question about security on police scanners.

Next Week

Next week’s activities include staff meetings, a Veterans Day event, a taping for social media, performance reviews for the town clerk, town attorney, and town manager, a meeting of the Cary Tennis Classic board, a council work session, a council meeting, the Chinese Lantern festival media night, and the Downtown Cary Park anniversary event.

Well, that is all for this week. My next post will be on Sunday, November 17th, 2024. Although I have Facebook and Twitter accounts, those are not the best means of communication with me. Please send all Town of Cary questions or comments to Harold.Weinbrecht@carync.gov and email personal comments to augustanat@mindspring.com.